Here’s the current Rasmussen polling (the only poll worth a damn in this election):
There’s been some other polls which rely on Democrats to turn out in the same numbers they did four years ago, but those ones are bullshit. At the other end of the spectrum are those optimistic Republicans (of whom Dick Morris is the most extreme) expecting a sudden break for Romney a la Reagan 1980. I really hope this will happen, but this ain’t 1980, Romney ain’t Reagan, and Obama ain’t Jimmah Cartah. While I could not be more delighted to be proved wrong, I think their optimism is unfounded. Rasmussen is pretty well on the money. I would only make minor changes to the map above:
1) Obama will win New Hampshire. His liberalism will tip the state back his way, despite NH being Romney’s almost-home state;
2) Obama will win Ohio. The early voting drive will push him over, and Sandy has helped him in the state;
3) Romney will carry Wisconsin. The Republican machine there is kickarse after the Scott Walker win, and that will be enough to tip him over.
So here’s what my predictions look like:
America will have a new President come November 7th, if I am right. Of course, I called the last two elections wrongly, so I am just hoping third time’s a charm. If Obama does pull a win out of his arse, it will be down to Sandy – there’s nothing like a crisis where you get to be the President on TV for three days to make people think you’re not such a bad guy after all, and nothing like kind words from Christie to seal the deal. Events, as Harold Wilson once mused.
I am pissed off about the Senate races. The Democrats look like they are about to steal victory from the jaws of defeat yet again. I’m calling North Dakota (Berg), Wisconsin (Thompson) and Nebraska (Fischer) as GOP pickups, and I’ll go out on a limb and give them Virginia (Allen) and Montana (Rehberg) by a nose. The Dems will pick up Indiana, a state they should never have won but for Richard Mourdock’s stupidity, and the corrupt and vile independent Angus King will take Maine, caucusing with the Nasty Party. Elizabeth Warren will prove that even stupid people can win elections by taking Massachusetts, and that will be that. The Democrats will have 50 Senators, and the GOP will have 49, to narrowly hold the world’s most powerful legislative chamber.
All is not lost, however. West Virginia’s Joe Manchin is basically a Republican in all but name, and will probably be a frequent dinner guest in Romney’s White House. With Ryan to break ties, it should be easy enough to get things done on the bulk of issues. But that’s if I’m right on Virginia and Montana, and those races, in all truth, could go either way.
The House may see a few seats change hands, but I do not anticipate anything more than a slight gain to Democrats, probably no more than ten seats.