Monthly Archives: October 2012

It’s Going To Come Down To Ohio

Here’s the race according to Rasmussen:

It’s pretty much all about Ohio now.  The only other way Romney will win is to take Colorado and Wisconsin, in which case Ohio will be unnecessary.  But while I think he may take Colorado, Wisconsin may prove beyond his grasp.

Nationwide polls are now consistently showing Romney ahead.  Unless he has a shocker third debate on Monday, I think this is how things are going to stay.  My prediction is that Romney will win the popular vote.  But unless he prevails in Ohio, or Colorado/Wisconsin, Obama will have a second term.

Romney Leads Electoral College for First Time

Okay, if I am going strictly on Rasmussen, he is still behind, but that assumes the Ohio poll on the 4th is still true, when all other more recent polls put Romney ahead in that state.

Bear in mind that Obama could get a vote from Nebraska, throwing the election to the House of Representatives, but Obama is unlikely to win a House vote to stay President.

Momentum is with Romney right now.  Rasmussen has him down only 6 points in Connecticut.  Michigan and Pennsylvania are back in play.  And Cameron Slater’s “maths” is looking dicey.

Ambassador Died, Obama Lied

With the Left, the end always justifies the means.  But this time they have been caught out:

a senior State Department official, apparently trying to get bad news out in anticipation of a Congressional hearing tomorrow, has started to come clean on the Benghazi consulate attack. He admitted to ABC that there never was a protest at the consulate, as the Obama administration has always claimed. Rather, the first warning those inside the consulate had that something was wrong was an explosion. They looked out and saw a large number of armed men approaching. It was a terrorist attack, pure and simple, well-planned and well-executed. It had nothing to do with a YouTube video.

If Obama’s shocker of a debate doesn’t cost him the Presidency, this should just about wrap it up for him, if there is any justice in this world.

Romney Needs Two More Electoral College Votes and He Is President

It’s pretty clear that, wherever Romney was before the debate, it has given him a boost. Virginia and Florida are now in his column. And while Colorado and New Hampshire haven’t been polled in a while, the last Rasmussen polls there showed Romney ahead. Rasmussen also has him ahead in Iowa. This would give him 267 electoral college votes, two votes away from occupying the Oval Office.

Obama still holds leads in Nevada, Wisconsin and Ohio, but his lead in Ohio is only one point, and absentee ballot requests there are hugely favouring the Republicans, in direct contrast to four years ago. Romney just needs one of these states to flip and he will be the President-elect come November 7th.

Foolish fifth column pundits like Cameron Slater seem to think the maths makes it impossible for Romney to win. Well it looks just fine from where I am sitting. He likes to whine that Romney has to carry ALL THE SWING STATES!!! (OMG) to win, ignoring that they are called swing states for a reason, and you only need a small flip of a couple of points to take the lot of them. It is not maths which wins Presidential elections, but votes. All Romney has to do is get enough of them in the right states, and it is looking increasingly likely that he will do that, if he continues to build on his strong debate performance.

Proof New Zealanders Are Morons

The New Zealand Herald’s coverage of the US Presidential elections continues to be woeful. Their only story on last night’s debate, from the Associated Press, seems to be the one published report on earth refusing to acknowledge that Romney was a clear winner of the debate,

They also run an online poll, in which, at the time of posting, New Zealanders, by a margin of two to one, have declared Obama the winner. I suspect most respondents did not actually watch the debate, because there is no way you could have watched it and thought Obama did well.

Whenever New Zealanders complain about "stupid Americans", it is just a matter of throwing this poll back at them and pointing out who the stupid ones are.

Romney Owns Obama and Makes Him His B*tch in Denver

Even Cameron Slater’s bum boy Andrew Sullivan is calling this “a calamity for Obama“.  Barry did nothing but stutter and bow his head like a naughty schoolboy for the ninety minutes of the first US Presidential debate.  His closing address sounded like it was written by Jimmy Carter.  You got the impression that this was the first time that Obama had ever really been challenged on his bullshit, and he had no comeback.

By contrast, Romney looked like the President.  He was confident and self-assured, rattled off fact after fact, and just made Obama look like a dick.  There were several great moments tonight, but none better than the discussion of the Simpson-Bowles tax plan:

Obama:  We’re putting it before congresss right now…

Romney:  You’ve been President four years!

And that really is the bottom line.  Obama has been campaigning like Bush is still the President.  With that one line, Romney tore away the curtain, and we saw Obama for what he really was – an empty chair.

Will this win Romney the election?  Still a month to go, so who can tell?  But I have no doubt what happened tonight will shift the polls.

UPDATE:  That killer punch…

Why You Can’t Trust Nate Silver (or Cameron Slater) To Accurately Report the US Presidential Elections

There has been a lot of debate over the accuracy of recent polling in swing states with regard to the race for US President. Based on these increasingly ludicrous juiced polls, a whole month out from polling day, and with four televised debates to go, Cameron Slater is prepared to call it for Obama on Whale Oil. Imagine calling the 2005 New Zealand election for Brash one month out, and you get some idea of how stupid this move is.

I’m trying to be a good Christian, so I will refrain from calling Slater all the names I would like to call him at this point. Let’s just settle for questioning his intelligence if that is what he really thinks. I think deep in his heart he knows this is not a done deal, but he clearly wants Obama to win so very badly, because he has made the foolish error of calling it very early on, and knows that he is going to look a massive fool if Romney actually wins. If Obama does win, he has massive bragging rights. He can claim he called it early on and that he is pundit magnus rex, when the most one can say about his claims is that even a stopped clock is right twice a day. Hell, you could toss a coin and be right 50% of the time.

The real test of these polls is whether Obama himself believes in them. The polls supposedly have a statistical tie in North Carolina, but Obama himself thinks this is bollocks, because he shut down his offices in the state, and has not campaigned there since the convention. The polls supposedly have him up ten points in Wisconsin, but he is campaigning there and spending money. Slater must be scratching his head wondering why Obama is doing this, since his trusty polls show that this is not a smart use of his time.

Slater and his trusty source Nate Silver also seem to think that this is going to be a bumper year for the Democrats, and that there is going to be a D+9 or more turnout for Obama come November 6th. That enthusiasm for Obama is so great, and enthusiasm for the GOP to vote him out is so low, that he will get an even bigger turnout than the D+7 he got in 2008! Really?!

Silver has defended the polling by saying that the companies concerned accurately predicted the 2008 result. Well, yes, sort of. Their polling suddenly got very accurate in the last week, but if you look at the campaign as a whole, what do you see? Dustin Hawkins of Breitbart explains:

If Silver had decided to look at what polls from NYT and CBS were saying before their final poll in 2008, he would see that they had Obama winning by 14 early in October. That number would then drop to 13 in mid-October, and then 11 by the end of the month. The final CBS poll would settle in at 9 points, two points higher than Obama’s final margin of victory. So yes, the “final” poll was within 2 points of getting the vote right. But the one taken less than 4 weeks earlier had estimated his lead by more than double what actually happened. I’m guessing Nate Silver would have a great explanation about the McCain surge no one else experienced.

Polling companies want to be accurate in the last week. That’s the only poll anyone remembers afterwards. They can publish any crap before that, and it looks like they do. If, as Silver claims, he is only as good as his data, then he is no good to anybody. And neither is Slater. You can’t trust the sampling on these polls. It’s like counting the number of bumper stickers for Obama that I see here in a Democratic stronghold like San Antonio (lots and lots) versus the number I see for Romney (almost none) and assuming that Obama will win Texas by a landslide, when reality, precedent and political instinct all tell me that Romney is going to wipe the floor here by about twenty points.

I maintain that Rasmussen is still the only poll worth a damn, and Rasmussen still shows a two point race. It is still very close. Anything can happen. I think Slater should check his credit card limit in case he has to buy Leighton Smith a good feed.


What a coincidence, I had bacon sandwiches for dinner last night…

Oregon Farmer Eaten By Pigs