If you ignore all the D+7 polls out there and focus on Rasmussen, the only company who got it right at the last election, this is what you come up with. Red for Romney, Blue for Obama, Yellow for anything 2% or closer:
You need 270 to become President (or 269 to throw it to the House, which means Romney wins anyway). So while Obama has firmed up slightly more electoral college votes than Romney (meaning, as I stated earlier, that Romney MUST win Florida), there is no clear leader right now. Nobody has firmed up the votes. There are 89 electoral votes up for grabs, and Romney only needs 57 of them, of which Florida provides 29.
Now I do in fact, think that Obama is slightly ahead, and he only needs to be ahead one vote in each of all those yellow states to become President. If you allow for crappy sampling in other polls, here’s my prediction of what would happen if the election were held today:
By some weird ominous coincidence, this is a very similar margin to that which won it for Jimmy Carter in 1976. I believe Obama is ahead in Ohio, Virginia and Florida at this point in time, which is what would give him the win. But his lead in these three states is tiny – less than 2%. There is no way the Obama campaign could be comfortable or confident of winning those states, and Romney could wipe those leads with a finger-snap.
Romney is very much in this. In fact, any casual perusal of state polls would make that obvious to the point where I don’t quite understand why I have to point it out. But the insane media bias out there against Romney, and the shoddy polls that are coming out necessitates it, sadly. I really hope that loveable, tin-eared, flip-flopping bastard with too much money for his own good can pull through. It is his for the taking.